What Will Plunder's Pitch Mix Picks Actually Look Like?

As we gear up for the regular season, I wanted to take some time over the next few weeks to give you an idea of what to expect from Plunder’s Pitch Mix Picks.

I mean let’s be honest, at this point you’re basically thinking, “So I’m gonna give money to a guy who likes to pretend he’s a pirate and that somehow translates to betting success?” And I can say, “trust me … this is awesome!” ‘tll I’m blue in the face, but you’re going to want to see some real data.

Sooooo … let’s do exactly that!

As I have mentioned in the past, this whole strategy was born in September 2024, so it was only implemented for two months of the season. To build off of that, what I have been doing with my trusty Pirate Nerds is to create a program that allows us to backtest the method for the entire 2024 season and explore the results.

Let’s take a snapshot of a day from 2024 and see how our Pitch Mix Picks would perform. Ladies and gentlemen … welcome to April 30th, 2024!

⚾️ THE PICKS ⚾️

• Will Smith and Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Brandon Hughes (ARI)

Now during the season this is where I will have some fancy tables that show the stats we like for these players and why we are choosing them. I don’t have that data right now, but I can tell you that I prioritize eight different stat categories, and these batters both passed the threshold on seven of them.

I also have eight pitching categories I look at for the pitcher they are facing (the more categories they pass for SUCKING the better). Hughes checked in with six of those being where I like to see them.

• Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien and Trevor Larnach (MIN) vs. Michael Soroka (CWS)

• Alec Bohm (PHI) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)

Again, there will be some nerd stats in here, but these selections are also good to show that we dig deep to find players with an advantage. Anybody can sit here and tell you to play Ohtani against a crappy pitcher (and sometimes I will), but the real goal here is to find PLUS ODDS OPPORTUNITIES. That’s the only way to have long-term success in sports betting. This method resulted in 120 betting wins last season, but also 137 losses. But even though we “lost” more than we “won,” the profit was +100.2 betting units.

BTW … If you’re new to the betting game and don’t know what a “unit” is, that’s the standard bet size based on your bankroll and risk calculations. So if your bankroll size meant your standard bet was $10, then that is your “unit.” And not all bets are created equal. We may put 1 unit on one bet, but only 0.5u on another. That’s how we properly manage our risk and reward.

💵 THE RESULTS 💵

So … how did you do on April 30th with those picks?

• Will Smith went 1-3 with a double, run scored and an RBI ✅

• Mookie was 0-3 ❌

• Kirilloff was 0-2 ❌ (Side note: I hate Kirilloff with passion of seven burning suns, so I may have totally ignored this play anyway, but for the purposes of this drill we will include his dumb ass.)

• Julien was 0-4 ❌

• Larnach was 2-4 with a run scored and an RBI ✅

• Bohm was 2-5 with an RBI ✅

This would’ve ended up being an OK day with three players laying an egg, buuuuut … the other three did well and while I don’t have the exact odds on that day, we would’ve likely had some plus odds for the total bases and hits+runs+RBI markets (which are the ones I tend to focus on).

And what we will always say here … GREEN IS GREEN!!!! 💵

I will add here that there would’ve likely been other players highlighted on that day once I got in there with my own eyes. The automated system can only do so much, and I will be giving additional considerations of recent game logs, weather, batter vs. pitcher histories, etc., but this backtesting does allow us to pull up snapshots of different days and gives me the ability to show you what to expect during the season.

And I’ll end with this … this is a work in progress and we are on this journey TOGETHER. You can ALWAYS reach out to me if you have any questions, concerns, suggestions or whatever else. I appreciate you taking this trip on the ol’ Plunderville Pirate Ship. Let’s ride!!!!