Tokyo Series: A Plunderiffic Day 2!

Whoopity doo … it’s time for day 2! Then of course we go back to a bunch of randos playing in some spring training games while we patiently wait for the next episode, but the season is almost fully here. (We may even listen to Dr. Dre’s “The Next Episode” a few times to prepare.)

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R.I.P. Nate Dogg

Quickie results for day one …

✅ Edman H+R+R, Ohtani TB, Hernandez H+R+R, Hits Parlay

❌ Edman TB, Hernandez TB, Suzuki H+R+R, home run plays

All in all a break even day, but may favorite plays delivered and the data was super helpful. We will continue to build as we gather more data. Not to mention we will have WAY better options with a full slate of games.

As we look toward the second game of the Tokyo, I have a couple housekeeping things to share and questions to answer from you fine peeps …

QUESTION: Is this what the emails will look like during the season? What’s the difference between free and premium?

ANSWER: Yup … this is the kind of info we will provide every day. Free version will get 1-2 top plays each day. Premium version will get all the rest … likely 5-8 a day depending on the schedule. Could be even more. UPGRADE TO PREMIUM NOW (use code EARLY15 to save 15%)

QUESTION: How do I push the “Easy Button” and get all of your line shopping, promo boost plays, parlays, etc?

ANSWER: The logistical reality here is this newsletter is being constructed a day or two in advance (so my wife doesn’t divorce me), so there aren’t any prop lines or starting lineups out there yet. To get the picks handed to you on a silver platter (the exact picks I personally play), you gotta be in the Break the Odds Discord. Use code PLUNDER and save 25%. JOIN NOW

QUESTION: Will you recap results of your previous picks?

ANSWER: YES! I think it is vital to give you FULL TRANSPARENCY of what we are doing. Any betting person who doesn’t share all his or her results should never be trusted. I’m on Pikkit so you can always track me there, but I will also recap results in the newsletter every day. Realistically it will be one day behind because I want to push the plays out first thing in the morning and will not have had time to recap the full slate from the night before (I mean I do have a job and stuff). So there will be a one day lag, but that’s likely it.

OK … on to the picks for 3/19/25 …

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

One caveat for the day. I really have no idea how to approach Roki Sasaki as he makes his MLB debut, so we will be avoiding Cubs bats for the day. Justin Steele takes the mound for the Cubs with a primary pitch mix to righties of a 4-seam fastball (63%) and a slider (29%).

• Tommy Edman (LAD) vs. Justin Steele

Well look where we are … Tommy Edman sitting at the top of the list again today. Reality is … he’s pretty good against lefties.

In 30 ABs against the mix we get …

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
15-30	.500	.677	1.602	.633	63%

Yesterday’s numbers were crazy good. Today’s are even better. Throw in the fact that he’s 4-10 against Steele in the past and this looks pretty solid.

TARGET MARKETS: Total Bases (up to 1u), singles (up to 1u), HR (0.25u), hits parlays … H+R+R is likely pretty juicy so it’s tough to recommend.

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

• Will Smith (LAD) vs. Justin Steele

Big Willy Style makes his first appearance in the list as we examine his 2024 sample of 59 ABs …

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
15-59	.254	.380	.888	.237	54%

Average is lower than we like. wOBA/OPS are just under the elite line, but ISO and HardHit are both good. This is an area where I’d probably look at his Total Bases line and if we’re getting a good number I’ll throw 0.75 units on it and then a 0.25u flier on a HR.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.75u), H+R+R (1u though juicy), HR (0.25u)

✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅

In the future this is where the FREE/PREMIUM paywall comes up and the rest of these picks go to the premium tier …

• Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) vs. Justin Steele

Teo makes another appearance on the Pitch Mix list. Not quite as elite as yesterday but still strong …

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
19-73	.260	.380	.899	.301	47%

Of those 19 hits, eight of them were for extra bases with seven of those being a home run. So yeah … definitely worth shopping the HR market.

TARGET MARKET: TB (0.75u), HR (0.25u)

• Michael Conforto (LAD) vs. Justin Steele

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
16-44	.364	.477	1.204	.318	54%

This one was a little weird to me when it came up because it’s lefty on lefty, but we trust the data and the numbers are there. Still very early in the season, so I may toss a half unit on his total bases and call it a day. He had a double this morning for what its worth. NOTE: This is a lefty/lefty matchup, so you may want to wait till lineups come out, but that will also be at like 4am

TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5)

• Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Justin Steele

  
  

Same deal as yesterday, no stats jumping out at me (though they are fine) and more that it’s Ohtani on the world’s stage so tossing a little something on total bases/HR is never a terrible idea.

That’s all for today … let’s go get some GREEN!