Time to Go to Gambling School

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The teacher is 247 years old

Now that we have about a week under our belts, I’ve been running though questions, thoughts and observations from you wonderful scallywags. A common topic thread that has come up has been in regards to sports betting terminology, strategies and betting markets.

I was very fortunate when I started dipping my toes into the sports betting world that I had some very smart people teach me the ropes. And while I am only “kinda smart,” I am really good at remembering the stuff they told me, so now I’d like to share that with you!

Reality is it’s a lot of info, so I’ve written up a separate blog post on the Plunder website so it can live there permanently for whomever needs it. READ IT NOW

Let’s jump into the plays for Thursday, April 3rd. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Brenton Doyle (COL) vs. Taijuan Walker [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
44-120	.367	.434	1.051	.250	44.55%

First start of the year for Walker so we will see, but 2024 was pretty much a disaster for him. Doyle pairs up well with his junkball mixture of pitches. I’ll be looking TB/HR

TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u), hit parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

• Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Charlie Morton [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
59-182	.324	.437	1.075	.313	48.91%

Duran has started the season well and is 3-7 off Morton in his career with a HR. Charlie is a high ground ball pitcher, so we limit our unit size if we use the HR market. If you can find a -130 or better H+R+R then we can try to work with that (especially if we can incorporate it into a boost).

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Tuesday, April 1 …

💩 Yordan Alvarez: 0-4

💩 Pavin Smith: 0-2, run

✅ Brent Rooker: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs

💩 Corey Seager: 0-3

Brendan Donovan: 0-4

Not a great day. Donovan crushed two balls, including one with a 109 MPH exit velocity, but nothing to show for it. (Welcome to baseball!) Rooker at least rescued us from the reverse sweep.

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