Painting the Chalk

A fairly chalky day here for the Pitch Mix Plays, but we just go by what the numbers tell us. So let’s have chalk flying all over the place like naughty kids in the 80’s who made to go out back and pound clean the erasers! (I’m older than you)

Let’s jump into the plays for Saturday, April 19th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Cal Quantrill [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
20-50	.400	.523	1.300	.400	51.11%

A warm day in Philly with Cal Quantrill on the mound? Yes please. You could consider other Phillies but Bryce is really the one that stands out. Above numbers for Harper are actually 2024 against the splitter and cutter, which is pretty much all Quantrill throws to lefties.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

Pavin Smith / Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Ben Brown [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
7-11	.636	.756	2.182	.545	55.56%

The sick numbers above are for Smith, but Carroll’s are equally as ridiculous. Both in play. Might be able to get Smith H+R+R but Carroll will have to be for parlays for that market.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (Smith maybe)/TB (1u), HR (0.25-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Thursday, April 17 …

✅ Kyle Schwarber: 2-3, 2 RBI, run

✅ Griffin Conine: 1-4, double, run

✅ Tyler Soderstrom: 1-5, HR, RBI, run

❌ Steven Kwan: 1-4

❌ Gabriel Arias: 0-4

✅ Oneil Cruz: 1-3, HR, RBI, run

✅ Eric Wagaman: 1-3, double, RBI, run

✅ Gavin Lux: 2-4, run

✅ Elly De La Cruz: 2-4, run