Opening Weekend in Plunderville

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Couple quick observations as we get rolling into our first weekend, but also in an effort to make this email as easy to read for however you wanna read it (or as little as you wanna read it), you can always scroll right down to the three main sections:

✅ The Top Picks

💰 The Recap

✅ The Premium Tier

One thought so far … April is a real pain in the ass. It simply ends up being a little more of a guessing game and learning process of figuring out the data, plus the markets to attack. For example … there’s several pitchers I would love to attack today like Senzatela, Bellozo, and Falter … but the recent trend data for the batters isn’t there yet, so it really just becomes a dart throw I’d like to avoid.

Like I’ve said and will continue to say … April will be a learning process and we will take it slow. Baseball is a marathon, and the data will be cranking come May/June and beyond.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Reese Olson [GRADE: A]

I know, I know … just yesterday I’m like “any jackhole can just pick Ohtani,” but the reality is some days smart jackholes gotta pick Ohtani.

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
80-260	.308	.478	1.190	.423	59.3%

All sorts of green thingies for the greatest baseball player on earth? Yeah. Time to dive in.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R is likely a 2.5 line, so I’m looking elsewhere with TB (1u) and HR (0.5-0.75 depending on boosts and lines), hit parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

• Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Griffin Canning [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
53-209	.254	.366	.876	.206	45.71

Those numbers are not ideally where we want them, but at the same time Canning is worse against lefties and Yordan is also batting .539 off him with 2 HRs. This is one of those times where I’d love a month of 2025 trends for Yordan, but I gotta lean on BvP instead.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R is likely going to be too juicy so I’m looking TB (0.75) and HR (0.3u), hit parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Thursday, March 27. As I’ve mentioned before, recaps will have a one day delay because I have to do work/family/life things and can’t turn around the late games fast enough.

❌ Vlad Guerrero: 0-2, 1 run, 2 BB … one hit from Vlad and our whole day was different.

✅ Ketel Marte: 2-5, 2 runs

❌ William Contreras: 0-4 … hot garbage

❌ Lourdes Gurriel: 0-5 … extra hot garbage

✅ Adley Rutschman: 3-5, 3 runs, 2 HR, 3 RBI … safe to say Adley had a helluva day

✅ Elly De La Cruz: 1-3, 2 runs

❓ Luke Raley: 1-3, 1 run … great if you did H+R+R, but not so great if you did total bases (like me)

❌ Bobby Witt: 1-5, 1 run … not enough going on here

✅ Cody Bellinger: 1-2, 1 RBI … Good for H+R+R but we wanted a dinger ya jerk!

All in all a mixed bag of a day and we were very close to a huge day.

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