No Foolin' Around Here

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I hate April Fools. The corny jokes. The blatantly obvious “pranks.” The whole thing is just goofy (coming from a guy who pretends he’s a pirate of course).

So here’s the goal for today … no jokes, just GREEN!

We’ve been doing this for almost a week now and the results have been a bit of a mixed bag so far. I’ve said it before, all of this really kicks in once we get 4-6 weeks of 2025 data. That’s where the picks remove as much of the guesswork as possible, which is the goal. Appreciate everyone’s thoughts, questions and feedback (and patience of course).

Q: You list H+R+R as a target market, but it seems to often be -145 odds or worse. Should we be targeting it?

A: H+R+R was a great market for us last fall, but I’ll admit lines have felt more juiced this season. Also, once we have our 4-6 weeks of data I’ll be able to isolate some less-chalky plays, and that will help too. For now, it’s definitely a place to look for plays, but it may not end up being cost effective.

Here come da picks. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM to get the rest.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Logan Webb [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
27-95	.284	.424	1.030	.316	51.76%

Webb struggled against lefties in 2024 and Yordan is a pretty good one of those. Above numbers are for Yordan against changeups and sinkers, which are Webb’s two favorite pitches.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.75u), HR (0.3), hit parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

Pavin Smith vs. Will Warren [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
28-87	.322	.420	1.036	.310	48.1%

Pavin delivered for us in his first appearance in the Pitch Mix Picks, so let’s go for round 2! As always, make sure theres guys are actually in the lineup so ya don’t get hosed!

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Sunday, March 30 …

❌ Alec Bohm: 0-5 … had tons of chances but laid an egg

✅ Dansby Swanson: 2-4, HR, run, RBI … if only we could get both top picks to cash the same day!

😒 Oneil Cruz: DNS

✅ Bryan Reynolds: 1-4, double … good for TB, not for H+R+R

❌ Dylan Moore: 1-3 … close, but not enough

✅ Nico Hoerner: 1-4, but delivered the single we wanted

😒 Lenyn Sosa: DNS

✅ Ryan O’Hearn: 2-2, double, run

❌ Adley Rutschman: 1-4 … not enough