It's Raining Dongs

The internet says today is “National Reach as High as You Can Day,” so we’re gonna go ahead and take that as a sign for a home run parade of our Pitch Mix Picks.

Starting today, I’m going to add a “PlunderSHOT of the Day” for one longer shot player that has shown up in the research but isn’t your chalky Ohtani/Judge type play. Obviously it’s more of a longshot to hit, but that’s the fun of it all, right? (This play will be in the premium section)

Let’s jump into the plays for Monday, April 14th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Mookie Betts and his buddies (LAD) vs. Antonio Senzatela [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
7-21	.333	.386	.905	.190	33.33%

Power numbers aren’t ideal, but we go back to the same “small sample size” comment as we wade through April. Mookie is 9-20 (.450) with 2 HR off Senzatela in his career (isn’t everyone?). I think Freddie Freeman and Michael Conforto are in play as well with Senzatela being traditionally worse against lefties. Freddie doesn’t have great BvP numbers against Senzatela, but Conforto does.

TARGET MARKETS: Mookie … H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u for boosts), hit parlays. The others … more in the 0.5u and 0.2u ranges.

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

• Paul Goldschmidt (I think) / Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Seth Lugo [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
4-17	.235	.219	.505	.059	42.86%

This is one of those “gotta take a little bit of a guess” situations because the above 2025 numbers for Goldie against the 4 seam/curve/cutter/sinker mix are not good, but he’s also destroying Lugo in his career, 7-11 (.636) 2 HR and swinging a hot bat this week. I’m going to lean more on the historical success and say this is worth a play. Aaron Judge is the exact opposite where the pitch mix numbers look great, but he’s also 0-11 against Lugo in his career. Still think he’s in play but not going to get overexposed to him either.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Saturday, April 12 …

❓ Bryce Harper: 1-4, run … won’t give it a full check since we didn’t hit TB

✅ Vlad Guerrero: 2-4, double, RBI

Spencer Torkelson: 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 runs

Brenton Doyle: DNP

Jose Altuve: 0-4 … suck pile

Griffin Conine: 2-4, 2 doubles, 2 RBI … a Pitch Mix banger!

Always love pulling deeper plays like Torkelson and Conine!