It's Opening Day in Plunderville!

Ahoy mateys … Opening Day is here!!!

Today we will offer two free “Plays of the Day” for all of our subscribers, as well as seven more premium plays that I 🩷LOVE🩷 (or at least “decently enjoy”).

Reminder, you can use code EARLY15 to get 15% off, but this discount expires at midnight TONIGHT! UPGRADE TO PREMIUM

Friendly reminder … successful sports betting is about LONG TERM success, so it requires patience and strategy. Plunder’s Pitch Mix Picks absolutely killed it in September and October last year, but we also had a lot of in-season data to work with.

April is a different beast … it takes some time to learn who’s good and who sucks, cold weather is a factor, and we need some games to see who’s swinging a good bat and who’s slumping.

My plan is to take things slowly, trust the process and hopefully throw a bunch of gold coins in the air because everything is so awesome.

Appreciate you taking this journey and please feel free to reach out if you have any questions, issues or suggestions at plundertheunder@gmail.com

LET’S GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Vlad Guerrero (TOR) vs. Zach Eflin [GRADE: A]

Eflin pitched well once he joined the O’s last season, but he’s also someone who’s K rate is below average (19.8% last year). He’s definitely someone you would classify as a “pitcher” more than a “thrower” who relies much more on a cutter, sinker, curve and sweeper.

In 243 ABs against the mix in 2024 we get …

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
82-243	.337	.398	.954	.189	53.2%

The average, wOBA, OPS and HardHit all fall into our top threshold. ISO is a little down, so that has us look for at things like H+R+R and singles/hits markets.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (1u), singles (1u), hits parlays

SECONDARY MARKETS TO CONSIDER: TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

• Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Justin Steele [GRADE: A]

Steele has already had one bumpy start in the Tokyo Series that we took advantage of, so we go back to that well again. Steele basically throws two pitches … 4-seam fastball and slider … and here’s how Marte did against lefties with that mix in 2024 …

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
43-101	.426	.518	1.238	.337	58.3%

All the bells and whistles are going off here (and would that make it a “Ketel Bell?” … ba-dum-tss!). Most markets are in play here based on value. For what it’s worth, Marte also batted .368 this spring.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up to 1.25u based on juice), TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hits parlays

OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the next seven PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Reminder, you can use code EARLY15 to get 15% off, but this discount expires at midnight TONIGHT! UPGRADE TO PREMIUM