It's Friday, We're in Love!

Quick reminder: This email goes out every morning by 8a (eastern). If you don’t have it by then, something is going on with the service. If anything looks weird on your end, please email me directly at plundertheunder@gmail.com

First up … apologies to anyone that 247 emails from me yesterday. There was a glitch in my setup that made me THINK nobody was getting the premium emails. It also made me THINK nobody was getting the followup emails. So I sent it multiple times. AHHHH!!!!

Turns out it was something else and I figured it out … so apologies for bombarding your inbox. I suppose it’s better than getting nothing at all, right?

Before we get to the picks I wanted to share info from a conversation I had with a member yesterday about target players, markets, bankroll because I think it’s important.

QUESTION: Do I play every market for every player you list?

ANSWER: No. When I list target markets and unit sizing, it is kind of a general guide, but I would also suggest modifying it for your own personal bankroll and risk management.

Here’s what I would suggest (especially in April) …

Pick a risk size you are comfortable with for a particular player, and then build backwards. So if your unit size is $10 and you are only comfortable risking $10 total on one guy, then build your plays accordingly. Maybe you want 0.75u on total bases and then 0.25 on a home run. There. Done.

Maybe you want 0.6u on H+R+R, then 0.2u on total bases, and 0.2u on a HR. There. Done.

Maybe you say “I will risk 1u max on this person directly, but I’m OK using him for another 1u on parlays.” There. Done.

This helps manage your bankroll, and not get too heavily invested in any one player. I’ll continue to remind … April is gonna bumpy. We need more data so there’s less guessing and more data. If we end April at break even, then we are in a good spot because it has taught us where we need to be. Baseball is LONG and the winning comes by staying the course.

We got this. It’s gonna be awesome. And really I think the plays so far have performed pretty well. I’m not happy that the top tier has lagged, but overall the pitch mix plays we wanna see are moving in the right direction.

Let’s jump into the plays for Friday, April 4th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Kerry Carpenter (DET) vs. Jonathan Cannon [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
30-100	.300	.376	.893	.240	44.16%

Numbers are solid. Not elite, but solid but he’s also 3-6 off Cannon and he was not very good at pitching baseballs last year, so I’m gonna ride with that. This is more of a TB/HR spot and less about H+R+R and hit parlays.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3u)

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

• Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Dean Kremer [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
52-168	.310	.409	1.000	.280	58.39

Numbers are very good here. H+R+R on him is always off the charts, so we have to look at TB, HR lottos, and hit parlays

TARGET MARKETS: TB (max 1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Wednesday, April 2 …

❓ Juan Soto: 1-5, 3 runs .. I did TB so I count this as a loss but H+R+R and hit parlays worked

❌ Tyler Soderstrom: 0-4 … trash

✅ Yordan Alvarez: 2-4, 2 RBI

✅ Jackson Merrill: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, run … bang!

✅ Byron Buxton: 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs … full disclosure I didn’t use him because the weather looked awful, but he totally delivered

✅ Luis Arraez: 2-4, HR!, 2 runs, RBI

A good day in the Lab but the top picks keep selling, which keeps are gains down, which we don’t like dammit!